Premier League Gameweek 33 Last Man Standing Picks

The Strongest Picks

Confidence ratings are editorial judgement, not calibrated win probabilities

1. 1

   

   Newcastle (H)

   vs Bournemouth

   5/5 confidence

   safe risk

   St. James' Park against a Bournemouth side that keeps a clean sheet here just 15 per cent of the time. Newcastle won their last outing and Bournemouth tend to draw or frustrate rather than threaten on the road. One of the strongest home picks this week

2. 2

   

   Nottingham Forest (H)

   vs Burnley

   4/5 confidence

   safe risk

   Burnley sit 19th with four wins, 20 points and a 58-goal leak. Forest at home should have more than enough, even with Elliot Anderson and Murillo listed as doubts. Home favourites in a gentle fixture

3. 3

   

   Aston Villa (H)

   vs Sunderland

   4/5 confidence

   safe risk

   Villa have wobbled lately (DWLLL) but they remain fourth on the table and Sunderland have only three away wins all season. Villa Park should settle this, even if it is not the prettiest 90 minutes

4. 4

   

   Brentford (H)

   vs Fulham

   4/5 confidence

   safe risk

   Brentford are unbeaten in five and seventh in the table. Fulham away from Craven Cottage have only five wins on the road. The Saturday lunchtime slot does not spook Thomas Frank's side

This Week's Fixtures

• 

  Brentford

  vs

  

  Fulham

  18 Apr, 12:30medium difficulty

  Brentford unbeaten in five (DDDDW). Early kickoff against a Fulham side that blows hot and cold

• 

  Newcastle

  vs

  

  Bournemouth

  18 Apr, 15:00easy difficulty

  Bournemouth keep a clean sheet at St. James' Park only 15 per cent of the time. Strong home form for Newcastle

• 

  Leeds

  vs

  

  Wolves

  18 Apr, 15:00easy difficulty

  Wolves rock bottom. Leeds still missing Rodon and Stach at the back, so not a clean cakewalk

• 

  Spurs

  vs

  

  Brighton

  18 Apr, 17:30hard difficulty

  Spurs home form is DLLLL. Brighton have won three of four. Swerve this one

• 

  Chelsea

  vs

  

  Man United

  18 Apr, 20:00hard difficulty

  Chelsea's defence is in bits (James, Colwill, Chalobah). United erratic too. Too messy for LMS

• 

  Everton

  vs

  

  Liverpool

  19 Apr, 14:00hard difficulty

  Merseyside derby. Form and logic go out of the window

• 

  Nottingham Forest

  vs

  

  Burnley

  19 Apr, 14:00easy difficulty

  Burnley have four wins all season. Forest at home, even with Anderson and Murillo as doubts, should handle this

• 

  Aston Villa

  vs

  

  Sunderland

  19 Apr, 14:00easy difficulty

  Villa recent form is patchy (DWLLL) but they are at Villa Park against a 10th-placed Sunderland side with shaky away returns

• 

  Man City

  vs

  

  Arsenal

  19 Apr, 16:30hard difficulty

  Title decider. Pep has called it a final. Saka out for Arsenal, Dias out for City. No sensible LMS pick here

• 

  Crystal Palace

  vs

  

  West Ham

  20 Apr, 20:00medium difficulty

  Monday night closer. Palace at Selhurst against a West Ham in the relegation mire

Stay Away From These

• 

  Spurs

  DLLLL form and one of the worst home records in the league. Brighton have won three of their last four, so this is a trap

• 

  Chelsea

  LLLWL in the last five and a defence missing Reece James, Colwill and with Chalobah only just returning. Against an erratic United side, anything could happen

• 

  Man City

  Hosting Arsenal in a title decider with Ruben Dias out. Pep himself called it a final. No place for a survivor pool pick

If You've Burned Through the Good Teams

• 

  Leeds (H)

  vs Wolves

  3/5 confidence

  moderate risk

  Wolves are 20th and winless on the road outside of rare flukes. Leeds' own form (WDDLL) and missing defenders stop this being a top pick, but against this opponent at Elland Road, the points are there

• 

  Crystal Palace (H)

  vs West Ham

  3/5 confidence

  moderate risk

  Monday night under the lights at Selhurst. Palace are mid-table (WDWLW) and West Ham are deep in the bottom three without a win in four. A punchy differential if you have already used the bigger names

Form Guide (Last 5 Games)

• 

  Arsenal

  Top of the table. Travel to the Etihad without Saka for a title decider

  LWWWW
• 

  Brentford

  Unbeaten in five. Home fixture against an inconsistent Fulham

  DDDDW
• 

  Newcastle

  Rebounded with a win last time out. Derby energy at home vs a weak away Bournemouth

  LLWWL
• 

  Chelsea

  One win in five and a defence patched together. Not a safe home pick

  LLLWL
• 

  Spurs

  No wins in five. Home form is a horror show

  LLDLL
• 

  Burnley

  Rock bottom for a reason. Forest away should punish them

  LLDLL
• 

  Aston Villa

  Inconsistent, but three home wins in their last five at Villa Park

  DWLLL