Our 374-pick sample
Draws caused 55% of failed picks
We checked 374 Premier League picks at LMS HQ. Of the 130 that failed, 71 were draws
By Conor Hutchins · Published
Across all 374 picks: 244 wins and 130 failures
- Picks
- 374
- Players
- 75
- Matches
- 150
Matches played from 15 August 2025 to 20 September 2026
The sample is small, and several players backed the same match. It can't predict your next pick
Only a win counts
Our Chelsea picks returned 23 wins, 23 draws and three defeats
Those 49 picks covered 14 matches chosen by our players
Read our pick-planning guide or use the free pick tracker. Submit your pick through your organiser
Use the numbers
Download the team totals. No player details are included
Download data (CSV)Free to reuse. Credit: Last Man Standing HQ, 24 September 2026. Keep the sample size and dates with any quote
Method, sample limits and exclusions
Sample limits
- Players chose their fixtures. These figures don't measure the league's draw rate or identify the safest next pick
- Several picks can share a match. One fixture accounts for 11 of the 71 draw-related failures
- Players can appear in multiple rounds and competitions. Some bought back in after a failed pick, so failures don't count unique people eliminated permanently
How we counted
We checked public competition rounds with deadlines before 24 September 2026, 00:00 UTC
The sample covers 40 rounds across 5 competitions
- Require a completed payment recorded before the cut-off, excluding the test payment provider
- Match the chosen team to a scored, full-time Premier League fixture. The pick must be timestamped by the round deadline and before kick-off
- Check the fixture's score agrees with the recorded pick outcome. Bought-back picks still count as failures when the team drew or lost
71 ÷ 130 = 54.6%, rounded to 55%. No duplicate player-and-round records remain
From 568 records to 374 picks
Each excluded record is counted once, at its first failed check
- 45 without a qualifying completed payment
- 17 without a linked fixture, including missed picks
- 8 without a scored full-time fixture
- 51 timestamped after the deadline or at/after kick-off
- 1 with a team that did not match the fixture
- 71 outside the Premier League
- 1 where the fixture result and recorded pick outcome disagreed
These are reporting exclusions, not judgements about entry eligibility. Historical corrections can affect timestamps
Future rounds are outside the starting set
About the download
The CSV is a fixed snapshot of team totals. Teams with fewer than ten picks are grouped together
It contains no names, account IDs or individual pick histories