Skip to main content

Season 2026/27

Gameweek 1 Last Man Standing Picks

CH
Conor Hutchins·LMS HQ Founder

Honest picks, the teams to stay away from, and a bit of common sense for your survivor pool

Deadline

Friday, 21st August 2026 at 19:00 BST

The Strongest Picks

Confidence ratings are editorial judgement, not calibrated win probabilities

  1. Arsenal logo

    Arsenal (H)

    vs Coventry

    5/5 confidence

    safe risk

    Champions at home against a side that just came up. Saliba and Timber are out but they still put three past Man City in the Community Shield, and you only get Arsenal once this season so spending them on GW1 has a cost

  2. Man United logo

    Man United (A)

    vs Hull City

    4/5 confidence

    moderate risk

    Carrick's side finished third and won four of their last five. Hull won the play-offs but this is still a gap in squad quality, and taking United now keeps Arsenal in the bank

  3. Man City logo

    Man City (H)

    vs Bournemouth

    4/5 confidence

    moderate risk

    Haaland at home in Maresca's first league game should have too much. Eighteen draws last season is the LMS warning though, a stalemate here is how you go out

  4. Brentford logo

    Brentford (H)

    vs Spurs

    3/5 confidence

    moderate risk

    Spurs finished 17th, De Zerbi is still patching a wrecked injury list, and Brentford are at home. This is a win you can take without burning a title contender

This Week's Fixtures

  • Arsenal logo
    Arsenal
    vs
    Coventry logo
    Coventry
    21 Aug, 20:00easy difficulty

    Champions at home, Community Shield 3-0 still in the legs

  • Hull City logo
    Hull City
    vs
    Man United logo
    Man United
    22 Aug, 12:30medium difficulty

    Play-off winners at home against a side that finished third

  • Everton logo
    Everton
    vs
    Crystal Palace logo
    Crystal Palace
    22 Aug, 15:00hard difficulty

    13th vs 15th, both leaky, draw written all over it

  • Ipswich logo
    Ipswich
    vs
    Sunderland logo
    Sunderland
    22 Aug, 15:00differential difficulty

    Promoted home side against a Europa League team

  • Forest logo
    Forest
    vs
    Leeds logo
    Leeds
    22 Aug, 15:00hard difficulty

    16th vs 14th on opening weekend, stay out

  • Brentford logo
    Brentford
    vs
    Spurs logo
    Spurs
    22 Aug, 17:30medium difficulty

    Spurs finished 17th and still have an injury list

  • Brighton logo
    Brighton
    vs
    Aston Villa logo
    Aston Villa
    23 Aug, 14:00differential difficulty

    Villa are short of bodies, Brighton at home

  • Man City logo
    Man City
    vs
    Bournemouth logo
    Bournemouth
    23 Aug, 14:00medium difficulty

    Haaland at home, but Bournemouth drew 18 times last season

  • Newcastle logo
    Newcastle
    vs
    Liverpool logo
    Liverpool
    23 Aug, 16:30hard difficulty

    No Newcastle manager, Iraola's first league game away

  • Fulham logo
    Fulham
    vs
    Chelsea logo
    Chelsea
    24 Aug, 20:00hard difficulty

    Monday night, Alonso's first league game, Fofana suspended

Stay Away From These

  • Liverpool logo
    Liverpool

    Away at St James' Park in Iraola's first league game, and they won one of their last five last season. Newcastle have no manager, which makes this chaos rather than a free win

  • Leeds logo
    Leeds

    Away at Forest in a 14th vs 16th fixture that screams draw. Opening-weekend away days like this are how last man standing ends

  • Spurs logo
    Spurs

    Finished two points above the drop and still missing van de Ven, Kulusevski, Solanke and Kudus. Do not touch them at Brentford

  • Chelsea logo
    Chelsea

    Alonso's first league game is a Monday night away at Fulham, with Fofana suspended and World Cup returnees short of minutes

If You've Burned Through the Good Teams

  • Sunderland logo

    Sunderland (A)

    vs Ipswich

    3/5 confidence

    moderate risk

    Seventh last season and into Europe, away at a side that just came up. Using Sunderland now is how you save Arsenal and Man City for weeks that actually need them

  • Brighton logo

    Brighton (H)

    vs Aston Villa

    3/5 confidence

    risky risk

    Villa are missing bodies and several World Cup returnees have no pre-season. Home to a depleted side is a smarter spend than burning the champions

What We're Actually Picking

Man United logo

Man United

Hull are play-off winners at home but United finished third and won four of their last five. Taking them now keeps Arsenal in the bank for a week that actually needs the champions

Form Guide (Last 5 Games)

  • Arsenal logo

    Arsenal

    Last season closed with five straight wins as champions

    WWWWW
  • Man United logo

    Man United

    Carrick's side won four of the last five to finish third

    WWDWW
  • Man City logo

    Man City

    Ended last season with a loss, now Maresca's first league game

    DWWDL
  • Liverpool logo

    Liverpool

    One win in the last five last season, Iraola inherits a stutter

    WLDLD
  • Coventry logo

    Coventry

    Championship run-in, went up as champions with 95 points

    DDWWW
  • Bournemouth logo

    Bournemouth

    Draw heavy to the end last season, sixth and into Europe

    DWWDD